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viv's avatar

Basically i think whatever is going to happen with ai, it'll be big, but not big enough to justify me paying more than cursory attention to it instead of what I am currently paying attention to, especially given my strong dislike of and distaste for the epistemic and social norms around the idk "transformative ai community" or whatever you want to call it

viv's avatar

No you didn't miss the point of the post at all you're using it correctly!

Sadly you have baited me into a substantive response :(

I just don't actually think anything is happening and my belief that it is not "fucking happening" is tied to strong intuitions about information density in the physical real world and what is and is not capturable by current or upcoming successful methods in AI.

I believe that superintelligence is not forbidden by physics but not that anything we're currently doing is likely to result in anything like a superintelligence, and also, there's no reason to think that just because something is permitted by physics means it will ever happen.

Conversely, I have no problem believing in doom conditional on superintelligence.

I think AI is already set to be significantly socially transformative, but in more or less a "normal" way, and not a nutso left-turn discontinuous way.

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